Erling Haaland (Manchester City), 21 goals
Haaland ran away with the Premier League golden boot last season, scoring 36 goals in his first campaign in England. He is unlikely to challenge his record for scoring the most goals in a single Premier League campaign, but 21 makes him the frontrunner again this season and would be considered an unequivocal success for any other striker in the league.
City have four games left to play – against Wolves, Fulham, Tottenham and West Ham – so he could still plunder a few more goals after shaking off the muscle issue that troubled him before returning for City (and scoring) – against Nottingham Forest at the weekend.
Haaland has taken the second most shots in the league this season (104), behind only Darwin Núñez (105). While his record of 0.69 goals per game (excluding penalties) has not quite matched his non-penalty expected goals of 0.82 per 90 minutes, he will be confident of scoring a few more goals in the final weeks of the season. He has easily the highest proportion of his touches inside the box (28.1%) of all regular players in the league.
Say what you want about his form, but Haaland remains the man to beat.
Cole Palmer (Chelsea), 20 goals
What a season Palmer is having. While his talent was not in question at Manchester City, his impact at Chelsea has made people sit up and take notice. Going into the last few games of the season, he is almost keeping pace with his former teammate Haaland, which is a remarkable accomplishment considering this is Palmer’s first season as a regular starter at this level.
Of course, Palmer’s output has been significantly boosted by penalties. His 0.45 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes is bettered by as many as 20 players (minimum 900 mins), perhaps taking some gloss off his total. Regardless, penalties are a key part of the game and, when it comes to the golden boot, all goals carry equal weight. Furthermore, his record from penalties – nine from nine, meaning he is in line to record the best 100% spot-kick record in a single Premier League season – has helped an otherwise inconsistent Chelsea team.
Nine players in the league have taken more shots than Palmer but just two of them can better his proportion of shots on target (46.4%). If he maintains his record of a goal every 109 minutes, he stands a very good chance of at least sharing the golden boot. Chelsea still have five games to play, giving him ample opportunities to increase his tally.
Alexander Isak (Newcastle), 19 goals
If Isak continues to develop the way he has since joining Newcastle, he will become a superstar. The 24-year-old is already pretty handy and has really found a groove in the last few months, scoring nine goals in his last eight Premier League games and thrusting himself into contention for the golden boot.
He is clinical and reliable in front of goal. No one else on this list has as good a shot conversion record this season. Isak has scored 19 goals from 66 shots, which is a conversion rate of 28.8% – only Chris Wood (32.4% of 37 shots) and Elijah Adebayo (32.1% of 28 shots) have scored a greater proportion of their shots among players with at least 25 attempts, though neither has registered anywhere near as many efforts.
Isak’s 19 goals have come from just 26 matches, meaning he is scoring at a rate of 0.88 per 90 minutes – or a goal every 103 minutes. His non-penalty goals per 90 of 0.62 is second only to Haaland’s (0.69) for players on this list.
Newcastle’s form this season has been erratic but they carry a threat going forward, especially in recent weeks, scoring four or more goals in three of their last six matches. They always create opportunities – Isak has been presented with 1.48 “big chances” every 90 minutes, which is second only to Haaland (1.91). And they have games to play against teams that give up plenty of shooting opportunities, such as Burnley, Brighton and Manchester United. Isak’s form has reached a new level at just the right time.
Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa), 19 goals
Will Ollie Watkins take home the golden boot and the player of the season award? Phil Foden might have something to say about the latter, especially if City win the title, but Watkins is in contention for both prizes. The England forward has hit a new peak under Unai Emery and has been one of the league’s standout players – and the most improved.
With 31 goal involvements, he is the first English player not called Harry Kane to record 30-plus in a Premier League season since Jamie Vardy helped Leicester win the title in 2015-16 (when he contributed 24 goals and six assists). Watkins is on the verge of becoming the first Villa player to score 20 times in a Premier League season – and the first in the top flight since Peter Withe in 1981.
No player in the league can better his goal involvements, which shows just how well he has combined with Leon Bailey and Moussa Diaby in Villa’s devastatingly fluid attack. None of his 19 goals have been from the spot. Perhaps it’s worth him having a word in the ear of designated penalty taker Douglas Luiz over the next few days.
Watkins’ teammates clearly trust him, as 43.9% of his off-ball runs into the box are targeted by passes from colleagues, which is the fourth-highest proportion of all strikers (min. 900 mins and 10+ targeted runs into box). His non-penalty xG of 16.04 is only behind Haaland (20.2) and Dominic Solanke (16.2), but Watkins has exceeded that expectation by 2.96. He has been lethal.
Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth), 18 goals
Solanke has already set a new record for the most goals scored by a Bournemouth player in a top-flight season, surpassing Joshua King’s total of 16. Bournemouth are quietly having a very good season under Andoni Iraola and even climbed into the top half of the table after their impressive 3-0 win over Brighton at the weekend. They have picked up 42 points in the Premier League since their 6-1 thrashing by Manchester City at the start of November; only the champions, Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa have accumulated more points in that time.
Unfortunately for Solanke, there was no goal for him against Brighton, though there will be more opportunities before the end of the season. His tally of 16 non-penalty goals is bettered only by Watkins (19) and Haaland (17). He has been remarkably consistent for Bournemouth, playing 3,120 minutes in the league this season, the fifth most of all outfielders. You can’t score if you don’t play and Solanke plays a lot.
He has the added motivation of trying to play his way into the England squad for Euro 2024, though his lack of chances suggests Gareth Southgate will look elsewhere. Bournemouth have a tough run in the next few weeks – they play Arsenal, Brentford and Chelsea – but this has been a tremendous campaign for Solanke. He has what it takes to play at the very top and a big move may beckon.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), 17 goals
There’s a perception that Salah is not having a great season but he is still in the race for the golden boot. Salah has scored 17 goals and created more big chances than any other player in the division. If only his teammates were as efficient. Liverpool have taken 715 shots this season, by far the most in the league and nearly 100 more than Manchester City (621), who are second on that list.
Salah has been more lethal than his teammates – the agent of chaos that is Núñez has scored 11 goals from his 105 shots, compared to Salah’s 17 from 100. Salah is averaging 9.1 touches in the opposition’s box every game, which is considerably more than any of his rivals in this list (Haaland is next with 6.8), and his xG of 0.75 per 90 minutes is only behind Haaland (0.98), Isak (0.8) and Callum Wilson (0.78). The downside is that his goals per game (0.68) doesn’t quite marry up with his xG.
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